There’s a saying: “garbage in, garbage out.”
That means if you put salt instead of sugar in a chocolate cake, don’t expect it to taste sweet. And if you base your economic predictions on misleading raw data, then don’t expect your guesses to be right.
Bank of America analysts are the latest to moan about the lack of demand for gasoline during this summer’s “peak driving season.” They can’t understand why demand for gasoline has been weak.
Now that the usual July 4 peak in gasoline use has come and gone — without any pickup in demand — those who’ve been saying, “wait until next week” have given up waiting for the improvement in gas prices.
I really hate to pat myself on the back (but only because it’s hurting my shoulder) but I predicted a couple months ago that gasoline prices would drop this summer, just like they did last year.
And prices have declined — by a lot.
Do I have some magical power that makes me able to guess these things? If I did, I’d be working on Wall Street.
No, I understand that for years, Washington data has been misleading people like those who work at Bank of America into thinking that the US economy, which really isn’t doing much of anything, is actually stronger than it really is.
So when BofA and others use the government’s garbage statistics in making their predictions, the resulting guess turns into garbage.
This has been going on for years, and I doubt Wall Street will ever figure it out. But now you know.