DOES Israel have proof it wasn’t behind Gaza hospital bloodbath? Experts examine IDF’s dossier of ‘evidence’ claiming explosion was a ‘misfiring rocket’ – which it says is backed up by lack of crater and image of shrapnel on roof
- Israel published a slew of evidence it said showed a misfiring rocket caused blast
- Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad slammed IDF claims it did not strike hospital
- Now experts have weighed in on the claims being shared by the warring sides
An explosion that rocked the Gaza Strip’s al-Ahli Arab hospital and killed hundreds of people last night, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, has sparked a venomous blame game between Israel, Hamas and its allies.
Israel this morning sought to absolve itself of any responsibility for the horrific incident, sharing a slew of evidence it claims is proof that a misfiring rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) – an independent jihadist group – was behind the blast.
The proof provided by the Israeli Defence Forces included an audio clip of alleged Hamas terrorists confirming the rocket came from PIJ, a video of what appears to be the rocket in question misfiring over Gaza, and birdseye images of the blast site that did not have characteristics consistent with an Israeli aerial strike, according to an IDF spokesman.
Meanwhile, Israel’s foes – Hamas, PIJ, Hezbollah and Iran – insist the IDF was behind the devastation and vowed to take revenge.
The incident has inflamed an already chaotic landscape of fraught diplomatic relations in the Levant and Middle East with many Arab countries condemning the violence, while Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdullah II cancelled their planned Arab summit meeting with US President Joe Biden.
Now, experts review each piece of evidence provided by the IDF to suggest Israel was not behind the brutal hospital blast.
Left: Imagery published by IDF shows what appears to be shrapnel on the roof nearby the hospital, suggesting something exploded in mid-air and showered debris over the site. It also shows examples of craters made by previous Israeli airstrikes. Right: Imagery shows the hospital car park after the blast – Israel argue there are no craters or major damage to structures, suggesting the characteristics of the site do not match those of previous Israeli airstrike targets
Israeli army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari speaks to the press from The Kirya, which houses the Israeli Ministry of Defence, in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023
People react at the area of Al-Ahli hospital, where hundreds of Palestinians were killed in a blast that Israeli and Palestinian officials blamed on each other, in Gaza City, October 18, 2023
A Palestinian girl carries a blankets as she walks past the explosion site at al-Ahli hospital, in Gaza City
Images of blast site ‘inconsistent’ with an Israeli aerial strike
What the IDF claims
Speaking to media on Wednesday morning, IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari showed a series of images, satellite photos and intelligence documents he said proved the damage caused at the hospital could not possibly have come from an Israeli strike.
He explained the images showed there was no structural damage to buildings around the Al-Ahli hospital, no craters in the adjacent car park, and no debris consistent with an air strike, implying a direct hit from an Israeli missile would have caused far more destruction.
‘The walls stay intact. There are no craters in the parking lot. These are the characteristics that show it was not an aerial munition that hit the parking lot,’ he concluded.
He also pointed out images of what he claimed was shrapnel on the roof of nearby buildings, suggesting the rocket fell apart in the air and sprayed its detritus across a larger area.
What the experts say
RUSI aerial warfare analyst Justin Bronk agreed with Hagari’s statements.
He wrote: ‘No crater or obvious shrapnel pattern consistent with IAF JDAM/Mk80 series bombs visible.
‘Still not conclusive but if this is the extent of the damage I’d say an airstrike looks less likely than a rocket failure causing an explosion and fuel fire.’
Joel Rayburn, Director of the American Center for Levant Studies, said: ‘There is no bomb crater here and nowhere near the destruction that would be required to cause (hundreds of deaths).
‘The initial reports of an airstrike that allegedly killed hundreds of people are not plausible given this physical scene.’
Open-source intelligence group GeoConfirmed also said the strike was likely to have been caused by ‘a missile launched by a Palestinian group [which] exploded mid-air (reason unknown) and one piece fell on the hospital causing an explosion’, based on analysis of videos and images of the scene.
And sharing an image of what appeared to be fire damage and minimal impact damage to the courtyard outside the hospital, Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins said: ‘The is the most noticeable damage to the ground, which, if it were the impact point of the munition used, would mean it’s pretty small payload, although at this moment we can’t know if it’s not pre-existing damage, so I wouldn’t want to draw conclusions from it.’
The IDF argued that an Israeli strike would’ve caused craters and considerably more damage
‘The walls stay intact. There are no craters in the parking lot. These are the characteristics that show it was not an aerial munition that hit the parking lot,’ Hagari concluded. Damaged cars are seen in this image but no evidence of major damage to the tarmac itself
‘Unlike Hamas, the IDF launched an immediate examination’ of the attack, he said, going onto explain there was no IDF fire ‘from land, sea or air that hit the hospital’, the spokesman said
Before and after images of the blast site published by Israel allegedly showed the damage could not have been caused by an Israeli airstrike
Video of rocket ‘misfiring’ over Gaza and radar data
What the IDF claims
Israeli officials released a video of the moment a rocket purportedly streaking towards Israel from Gaza appeared to suffer a problem and suddenly changed course.
The projectile is seen soaring through the air before jerking away from its original path. Seconds later the flames from its engines spark even brighter before flaming out completely.
In the darkness, it is not clear whether the rocket broke apart or simply lost its trajectory.
But moments later, a pair of explosions erupt in the city below – the result of what Israel claims was the rocket falling back to Earth and striking the hospital in Gaza City.
What the experts say
Speaking on the result of the blast, Dr Andreas Krieg – a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London – said: ‘If we look at the evidence… whatever happened in that car park (at the hospital) was very unlikely to be an Israeli airstrike.
Tal Hagin, an investigative analyst specialising in the Israel-Palestine conflict, said of the video footage: ‘Due to the fuel time on the rocket and the explosion, I’d assume this was most likely an R-160 (rocket used frequently by Palestinian militants)… There is a high likelihood that this rocket misfired – but its payload was not entirely destroyed, resulting in a devastating explosion.
‘Conclusion based on current data: A misfired rocket by Hamas/PIJ was responsible for the explosion at the hospital.’
An IDF statement read: ‘A failed rocket launch by the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization hit the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza City.
‘This is the tragic result of firing rockets from densely populated neighborhoods.’
Later, the IDF shared a map of radar data which it said showed a salvo of rockets from a PIJ site streaking past the hospital, implying one of those rockets misfired and landed on the site.
The launch site appeared to be located roughly 2.5 miles from the hospital.
Israel’s Defence Forces have released a video they claim shows how a misfiring Gaza rocket was responsible for the devastation of a Palestinian hospital which killed hundreds of people overnight
Moments later, two explosions erupted in the city below
The rocket suddenly flames out and goes dark but it is unclear whether it broke apart
Israel also released a radar map of Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket attacks, as well as a video of the moment a rocket purportedly streaking towards Israel from Gaza appears to suffer a problem and suddenly changes course before flaming out
Audio clip of Hamas terrorists
What the IDF claims
In an audio clip procured by Israeli military intelligence, two alleged Hamas terrorists can be heard discussing the explosion and confirming the rocket came from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
‘They are saying (the rocket) belongs to Palestinian Islamic Jihad,’ one alleged Hamas member says.
‘It’s from us?’ another responds in surprise and shock?
‘It looks like it,’ the first responded. ‘They are saying the shrapnel that fell from the missile is local shrapnel and not like Israeli shrapnel… It misfired and fell on them.
‘God bless – couldn’t it have found another place to explode?’
Israel’s official social media accounts shared the clip with the caption: ‘Hamas terrorists in their own voices: Listen to the conversation between Hamas operatives as they discuss the failed Islamic Jihad rocket launch on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on October 17, 2023.’
In the clip, the alleged Hamas members say the PIJ rocket was fired from behind the hospital – a statement that did not align with Israeli radar data that showed the rockets came from about 2.5 miles away.
However, Hamas and PIJ, while both opposed to Israel, are not working together and are rivals in the Gaza Strip – it is therefore reasonable to think Hamas may not have had knowledge of the exact site from which the rockets were launched.
What the experts say
The audio recording is yet to be independently verified.
IDF spokesman Hagari said Hamas knew the hospital blast was caused by an Islamic Jihad rocket but launched a ‘global media campaign’ to blame Israel.
‘They understood with absolute certainty that it was a rocket misfired by Islamic Jihad that damaged the hospital.
‘Unlike Hamas, the IDF launched an immediate examination’ of the attack, he said, going on to explain there was no IDF fire ‘from land, sea or air that hit the hospital’.
‘I can confirm that an analysis of the IDF operational systems indicates that a barrage of rockets was fired by terrorists in Gaza passing in close proximity to the Al Ahli Al Mahdi Hospital in Gaza at the time it was hit.
‘Intelligence from a few sources that we have in our hands indicates that the Islamic Jihad is responsible for the failed rocket launch which hit the hospital in Gaza.
‘I repeat, this is the responsibility of Islamic Jihad that killed innocents in the hospital in Gaza.’
What do Israel’s opponents say?
Hamas slammed what it said were ‘outrageous lies’ after Israel’s Defence Forces published their evidence.
The terrorist group said the Israeli military evidence was fake and that ‘its outrageous lies do not deceive anyone’ in comments given this afternoon, hours after a spokesman for Islamic Jihad accused the IDF of ‘trying to cover for the horrifying crime and massacre they committed against civilians.’
The London-based Palestinian Return Centre (PRC) said it was ‘deeply horrified by the horrendous air strike by Israel on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in central Gaza, an attack that amounts to state terrorism and a war crime.
‘The strike breaches all international human rights and humanitarian laws and conventions. Thousands of Palestinians were at the hospital when the building came under bombardment.
‘Israel continues to commit war crimes against the Palestinian people in Gaza with unprecedented support from its western allies.’
Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed terrorist group based in Lebanon, called for ‘a day of unprecedented anger’ against Israel, while Libya’s foreign ministry accused the Jewish state of ‘war crimes and genocide’.
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s foreign minister, later arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday night after the hospital bombing – a remarkable show of unity between two former sworn enemies.
While there, Amir Abdollahian issued a stark warning to Israel, with the foreign minister tweeting: After the terrible crime of the Zionist regime in the bombing and massacre of more than a thousand innocent women and children in the hospital, the time has come for the global unity of humanity against this fake regime more hated than ISIS and its killing machine. Time is OVER.’
Wounded Palestinian children lay at the al-Shifa hospital, following Israeli airstrikes, in Gaza City on Tuesday
People inspect the area of Al-Ahli hospital where hundreds of Palestinians were killed in a blast that Israeli and Palestinian officials blamed on each other on Wednesday
President Joe Biden listens on, as Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during their meeting in Tel Aviv on Tuesday
What do Israel’s allies say?
British intelligence is working rapidly to independently establish who was behind the blast in a hospital in Gaza that killed hundreds of Palestinians, Rishi Sunak said.
The Prime Minister urged MPs not to ‘rush to judgment’ on Wednesday as Israel and Hamas issued rival claims about the atrocity feared to have killed hundreds.
Visiting Tel Aviv, US President Joe Biden appeared to side with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by telling him it ‘appears as though it was done by the other team, not you’.
But Mr Sunak told the House of Commons that he was unable to reveal the UK verdict after holding talks with the National Security Adviser and the Joint Intelligence Committee.
‘We should not rush to judgment before we have all the facts on this awful situation,’ he told Prime Minister’s Questions.
‘Every member will know that the words we say here have an impact beyond the House.
‘Our intelligence services have been rapidly analysing the evidence to independently establish the facts. We are not in a position at this point to say more than that.’
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said ‘no-one should be taking at face value the word of a terrorist organisation’.
Hamas is proscribed as a terrorist organisation by the UK Government.
President Biden warned Israel not to become consumed with rage even as he promised that the US stood with Israelis and their demand for justice after suffering a slaughter equivalent to 15 9/11s.
He delivered a speech laden with anger at the end of a day in Tel Aviv meeting Israeli leaders and victims of the Hamas terror attack.
‘We’ve seen it described as Israel’s 9/11,’ said Biden. ‘For a nation the size of Israel it was like 15 9/11s.
‘The scale may be different, but I’m sure those horrors have tapped in to sow some kind of primal feeling in Israel just like it did in America: Shock pain, rage… an all-consuming rage.’
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